Election Prediction

The 2012 Presidential Election is close at hand.  Barring some unforeseen circumstance, like a major gaffe, here's how I think it's going to go down:

The State's to watch are:  Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin.

I have Romney winning Colorado, Florida, Iowa, and North Carolina.
I have Obama winning Nevada, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, and Virginia.
Michigan, Ohio, and Wisconsin are too close to call.

I should note that Romney is gaining ground in nearly all of the swing states, but he doesn't have much time.

I gave Nevada to Obama because Harry Reid has a ton of union thugs that do his bidding in that State.  Come election day, they will be busing these people to the polls.

I gave Colorado to Romney because of the strong organization of the Mormon community.

This leaves Romney with 250 electoral votes, and Obama with 244.  We're missing Michigan, Ohio, and Wisconsin which make up 44 electoral votes.

Michigan:  I give this to Obama because of the strong union support. +16
Wisconsin: I give this to Romney because Paul Ryan has a lot of support in his home State. +10
Ohio:  This State will decide the election yet again.  Unfortunately, I have to give it to Obama.

Unless Romney can win Ohio OR Pennsylvania, I have Obama winning the election.
I hope I am wrong.

Update:  A new poll shows Romney winning Ohio by 2.  (Rasmussen).  I still think Obama will win Ohio, but he's losing support every day.